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Prediction for CME (2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-03-17T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29628/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is a filament eruption spanning S45E05 to S15W40 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304 imagery starting around 2024-03-17T02:30Z. Dimming is visible from the eruption site shortly after the filament lifts-off, starting around 02:37Z, seen in SDO AIA 193 and field line movement can be seen near the S/SW limb at this time in SDO AIA 171. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 04:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. This event partially overlaps CME: 2024-03-17T03:36Z, which also likely occurs from the same filament eruption. Arrival signature is likely of a combined arrival of these two CMEs. It is characterized by an increase in magnetic field to 14nT in what is likely the CME sheath, followed after 2024-03-21T10:49Z by smooth rotation of magnetic field components in what is likely the flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-21T01:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-21T05:53Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
2-CME simulation result for the bulk measurements of CME: 2024-03-17T03:12Z and CME: 2024-03-17T03:36Z.

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Solar Orbiter, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-03-17T17:43:13Z
## Message ID: 20240317-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-03-17T03:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~499 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 31 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -24/-48 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-03-17T03:36:00-CME-001

2: S-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-03-17T03:12Z.

Estimated speed: ~325 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 45 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 10/-35 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Solar Orbiter and STEREO A (minor impact).  The leading edge of the CMEs may reach Solar Orbiter at 2024-03-18T22:49Z and STEREO A at 2024-03-20T22:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 
  
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-03-21T05:53Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-4 (below minor).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-03-17T03:36:00-CME-001 and 2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240317_105500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif


## Notes: 


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Lead Time: 80.12 hour(s)
Difference: -4.05 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2024-03-17T17:43Z
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